Halloween is a fan-favorite holiday in the U.S. You get to dress up in fun costumes and gorge on delicious treats. What’s not to love? It’s an evening millions look forward to every year.
All that celebration comes with a price tag. The National Retail Federation expects Americans to spend just about $13.5 billion on Halloween this year, slightly more than last year. Candy alone is estimated to be $4.1 billion of that. On a per-person basis, that equates to about $115.14, and 96% of shoppers are planning to buy sweets.
All of that candy is destined for jack-o’-lantern buckets and pillowcases, and some states are just better for trick-or-treaters than others. Spokeo has crunched the numbers using data from the National Retail Federation, the Census, and the National Centers for Environmental Information to rank all 50 states on their trick-or-treat quality, so that you know just how much candy to expect on Oct. 31.
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Location matters when it comes to trick-or-treating
It might feel like the luck of the draw whether or not you have a strong haul of candy on Halloween, but there’s a myriad of secret factors at play.
Here’s what to look for: a neighborhood with plenty of children that is densely populated with lots of houses close together. Neighborhoods where homes have lit-up walkways also make knocking on the door easy.
These are some of the factors that make a high-quality trick-or-treating place. Spokeo’s index scores and ranks each state on four main conditions drawn from federal Census and weather data.
How the index is built
Each component of the index receives a score on a scale of 0 to 100. Top states in each category score 100. Each of the four scores is then weighted and combined into one single index for an aggregate score. The four categories are:
1. Households with children under 18. Kids drive demand for trick-or-treating, so it’s only natural to start at the number of households with kids younger than 18. The index uses percentages to avoid letting large states win by simply being large. The data is drawn from the Census Bureau’s 2020 to 2024 American Community Survey five-year estimates, Table B11005.
2. Housing density in populated tracts. Having more doors within walking distance means more opportunities for candy. The index focuses on calculating housing units per square mile for each census tract with households. Those figures are then averaged within each state. This measure is limited to populated tracts to stop empty land from dragging down states with large swaths of wilderness or farmland. Table B25001 from the Census survey and TIGER/Line tract geography data were used for this point.
3. Single-family detached share. Having a detached house with a front walkway is the picturesque ideal for trick-or-treating. The index divides the number of single-family detached housing units by all housing units in each state, viewable at Table B25024 of the survey.
4. The weather layer.Last but not least, weather patterns are a must-include item. Rain deters trick-or-treaters, and some states don’t have the best track record in October. The NOAA’s 1991 to 2020 daily climate normals for Oct. 31, combining the normal average temperature with the probability of rain, were utilized.
Where to go this Halloween
The heatmap shows that where you are in the country will likely have an impact on trick-or-treating:
Utah takes the top spot, followed by Texas, Oklahoma, California, and Mississippi. How each earned their spot in the top five is a different story.
Utah has the highest share of households with children at an astounding 38%. Texas comes a bit behind at 35%. California earned its place based on its ranking in three of the four components: population of children, density, and weather.
Oklahoma was able to rank due to being second for single-family housing at 73%, and Mississippi brings up the rear with weather that hovers closest to a lovely 60-degree target, perfect for being in a warm costume.
Idaho is a unique case study. It leads the nation in single-family housing at 74% and ranks fourth for households with children, but doesn’t quite eke itself into the top five.
What the index can’t see
No index is going to perfectly capture what makes a good Halloween night. This one doesn’t take into account the number of households that actually give candy or how safe a certain street feels. It doesn’t consider traffic patterns or whether a town runs organized trick-or-treat events instead of door-to-door knocking.
Looking at state-level figures also glosses over the difference between living in a dense city versus a suburb that sprawls for miles. However, the four factors tell a strong story about whether or not your state is likely to throw a fun Halloween evening.
In states like Utah and Texas, where children are abundant, and in California, where homes are close together and the weather is temperate, you may be more likely than not to bring home a good haul. Wherever you live, though, the index makes one thing clear: Areas with more kids, closer doors, and drier weather are a recipe for a successful Halloween.
With Halloween spending expected to top last year, though, there will certainly be plenty of candy to go around, so don’t despair if your state ranked low on the list.
