Top Cities for the Best Off-Market Real Estate Properties

Choosing the location for your family home is one of the most important decisions of your life. While it is important to factor in considerations such as the local school ratings, crime statistics, and employment opportunities in the area, something else that should be factored in is how likely the property is to sell, and the areas that have seen the most off-market estate transactions.

What does off-market mean? In the real estate context, it refers to properties that are not actively marketed or sold through traditional real estate agents and has become an increasingly popular trend, particularly in major cities or highly desirable areas. This is partially due to the discrete nature of the sale, which can be useful for high-profile personalities, families going through financial and personal issues, or simply if the homeowner doesn’t want to deal with multiple bidders. For the majority of cases, off-market sales are of benefit to both the buyer and seller – homeowners can save substantially on real estate fees when dealing with just one interested party, while buyers can negotiate a price without the influence of multiple bidders or have the opportunity to purchase their dream home rather than wait for it to hit the market.

To uncover the best major cities for this, along with the hidden gems across the country, our research looks at the main house-buying factors and the likelihood of selling.

The research analyzed more than 12 million properties, taking into consideration house prices and average loan-to-value (a financial ratio that compares the mortgage to the market price of an asset being purchased) and a proprietary “likelihood to sell” score (developed to determine how likely a property will sell in the next 90 days). The calculation also accounts for population density – working on the assumption that increases are a measure of location desirability – neighborhood safety, school ratings, and whether employment is readily available in the area.

Key Findings

• Atlanta, Georgia, had the best ranking of all the major cities analyzed for the likelihood of the properties to sell.
• Arizona’s capital Phoenix came in second of the places that are most likely to sell.
• Charlotte, North Carolina, topped the index for the best city to live, due in part to reasonable housing costs ($588,189) and a relatively safe crime ranking.
• California was the state with the highest number of cities in the Best Places to Live rankings, with nine of its cities making the top 50 rankings.
• Texas was the state that saw the second highest number of cities to make the rankings, with two making the top ten – Fort Worth in 6th and Houston in 9th.

Best Major Cities For Off-Market Real Estate Properties

To understand the best major cities for off-market real estate properties, the research analyzed a range of different variables, including population density (working on the assumption that increases are a measure of location desirability), neighborhood safety, school ratings, and employment status, as well as loan to value rates.

Spokeo worked alongside Leadpipes AI to conduct the ranking, using its Propensity to Sell score to collate the findings. This approach uses machine learning and artificial intelligence to assign every property in the country a number, which correlates with its propensity to sell in the next 90 days.

The research found that Atlanta, Georgia, had the best ranking of all the major cities analyzed for the likelihood of the properties to sell. The capital city of the Peach State had one of the lowest averages of unemployment rates in all the cities analyzed, and a particularly low crime ranking for its population.

Phoenix, the capital of Arizona, came second with a likelihood to sell an average of 574.75 out of 1000. With warmer-than-average temperatures and reasonable house prices (the average property costs are $685,995), it is no surprise that it is seen as an attractive choice for homeowners. Although Las Vegas isn’t known for its residential areas, 628,970 Americans call Sin City home, and with a likelihood to sell average (574.06) on the higher end, properties here could be a lucrative investment for property flippers or those looking to quickly sell their home.

The best major cities for off-market real estate properties, based on the likelihood to sell analysis, are:

¹ The likelihood to sell mean average has been calculated using all the properties in each area within the Spokeo database – the closer the score to the top rating of 1,000, the higher the likelihood the property will sell within the next 90 days.

Best Undiscovered Cities For Off-Market Real Estate Properties

Although major cities always see a lot of property interest, especially from commuters who are often willing to settle off-market to secure a home in sought-after areas, the research looked to uncover the best undiscovered cities for booming real estate. As well as looking at the likelihood to sell averages, the undiscovered cities rankings were weighted by the number of employed adults in the area, loan-to-value ratios, crime rankings, health care ratings, as well as average house prices.

Charlotte in North Carolina, home of the NASCAR Hall of Fame and the Carolina Panthers, topped the index for the best city to live. With reasonable housing costs and a relatively high crime ranking (of which 10 is the safest average), Charlotte also scored highly for school ratings – making it a popular choice for those with families. Although Charlotte topped the index for the best place to live, it is one of only two North Carolina cities to make the list, Raleigh being the only other location in the Tar Heel state.

The full list of the best undiscovered cities for off-market real estate properties, based on the index, are:

Unsurprisingly, California was the state with the highest number of cities in the rankings. Long Beach was the only Golden State city to make the top ten, which is primarily due to receiving the safest crime rankings possible.

With over half a million residents and its close proximity to Downtown LA, this coastal town is a great choice for homeowners looking for the best of both worlds. Other California cities that made the top 50 best places to live include Oakland (25th), San Diego (29th), Sacramento (38th), Fresno (39th), Bakersfield (43rd), San Jose (46th), Los Angeles (47th) and San Francisco (48th).

Texas was the state that saw the second highest number of cities to make the rankings, with two making the top ten – Fort Worth in 6th and Houston in 9th. The second largest state by both landmass and population, residents benefit from affordable housing, low taxes, and warm weather.

Fort Worth had the highest loan-to-value average, meaning a more lucrative ratio of what you borrow as a mortgage against how much you pay as a deposit. This combined with a high employed population makes it the best place to look for off-market real estate in the Lone Star State. Other cities to make the ranking include Austin (14th), Dallas (19th), San Antonio (40th), and El Paso (42nd).

Best known for the Grand Canyon, Arizona was home to three of the cities that made the top 50 best places to live, according to our research. Phoenix came second in both the major city likelihood to sell index and the undiscovered cities ranking — and our research shows this is potentially one of the most lucrative cities for real estate. Other cities that made the rankings are Mesa, the third largest city in the state, and Tucson, home to the University of Arizona.

Florida may be the most visited state in the U.S., but how does it compare to other states when it comes to real estate? Interestingly, just three of the Sunshine State’s cities made the rankings, with just one (Jacksonville) making the top twenty, in 16th place. Boasting the largest urban park system in the country, this combined with Jacksonville’s rich history makes it a great choice for those looking to benefit from outdoor space within an inner-city surrounding. Other major Florida cities that made the rankings include Tampa (22nd) and Miami (31st).

The Human Factor: Attitudes Toward Off-Market Properties

There are strong arguments for making or pursuing an off-market sale, but we have not yet addressed the emotional side of home-buying. Logic plays a part in any real estate transaction but so do emotions, and any discussion of off-market properties is incomplete unless it takes consumer attitudes into consideration.

Spokeo commissioned a survey to address that gap and complement the AI-driven research discussed above. The results were encouraging for anyone considering buying or selling a home off-market, but slightly less so for real estate professionals hoping to tap this market.

Attitudes Toward Selling a Home Off-Market

More than 4 out of 5 respondents, a total of 82.9 percent, expressed a willingness to sell a home off-market. Reasons cited included:

• The prospect of making a better deal than a realtor would make for them (61.5 percent).
• A belief that dealing off-market was more trustworthy (53.9 percent).
• A belief that they’d arrive at a deal more quickly (47.2 percent).

Attitudes Toward Buying or Renting a Home Off-Market

The percentage of respondents who would be willing to buy or rent a home off-market was even higher, at 90.2 percent. Respondents’ stated reasons for this included:

• The benefit of an exclusive deal (53 percent).
• A perception that the selling process could be quicker in a private transaction (48 percent).

Doubts, Concerns, and the Role of Realtors

Although respondents were overwhelmingly positive about the potential of off-market sales, they also expressed some doubts and second thoughts. A few affect any potential buyer or seller, while others are specific to realtors.

• Over half of respondents worried that the limited exposure received in a private sale might impact them (58 percent).
• Many expressed concerns about the uncertainty of pricing in an off-market situation (46.3 percent).
• Others worried that limiting the pool of buyers or sellers to their own network could be an issue (46.4 percent).

These are all factors that would traditionally be resolved by using a real estate professional to handle the sale, but despite this survey respondents expressed misgivings about the role of realtors:

• A large majority of respondents felt that they could do as well as a realtor or better in selling their home (83.1 percent).
• An even larger majority believe that realtors earn more than their share of the transaction (91.3 percent).
• Respondents reported paying an average of 4.89 percent of their previous home purchase price to the realtor.

Grounds for Optimism

The survey illustrates why interest in off-market sales is high, and holds some encouragement for private buyers and sellers, as well as for realtors. For those wanting to buy or sell a home, it makes a case that people are willing to make or listen to offers. For professionals, despite the misgivings many survey respondents expressed about working with a realtor, it shows that a strong salesperson can reel in off-market clients by emphasizing the marketing leverage a professional can bring even to an off-market sale.

How to Find Off-Market Properties

Deciding to buy an off-market property is one thing, but actually finding a suitable property requires some effort. Some sellers may offer their homes through a local “for sale by owner” site or even Craigslist or Facebook Marketplace, but in those cases, there will be competition for the deal and many of the benefits of a private transaction may be lost or compromised.

For those who have already worked their personal network for leads without success, or who wish to find a property in an area where they have no personal network, Spokeo offers a powerful tool to help identify suitable properties and potential sellers. There are multiple ways to use Spokeo for this purpose, but a sample workflow might look like this:

• Choose a suitable neighborhood in your target city. If it’s a city you don’t know, reading existing real estate listings can give you an idea of which neighborhoods seem to fit your needs and budget, and Google’s Street View can let you virtually “walk the block” and even choose specific addresses.
• Use Spokeo to search a representative handful of addresses in each potential neighborhood. Those search results will include things like safety statistics and crime rates for the neighborhood, and the presence of any registered sex offenders. If the neighborhood checks out, move on to the next step.
• Search the specific address of each house on each street that’s of interest to you (this takes just a few seconds for each search). The search results will tell you the current owners and residents (if different) for each address, along with crucial details including how long they’ve owned the home, their estimated income, the property’s historical tax assessments, and contact information for the owners and residents.
• Sift those initial search results to find the homes that seem the best fit for your needs. Now, scrutinize the owners. How long have they owned the home? Judging from their age, are they likely to be empty-nesters looking to downsize, or a young family in search of more space? Do you just like the property, and want to try your luck? If so, move on to the next step.
• Click through the Spokeo search results to view the current owners’ available social media profiles. Examine their public posts, on their own timeline or in groups they belong to. This may or may not suggest motivations to buy or sell (a new baby, a new job, the last child graduating and moving out), but it at least provides a sense of the property owner as a person.
• Reach out to the current owner with a telephone call, text, email, or social media message, as you feel to be appropriate. Spokeo’s profiles will provide the owner’s available contact information. Remember to familiarize yourself with laws concerning unsolicited phone calls, emails, and texts before reaching out.

Not everyone will be open to your inquiry, but repeating these steps (and using your ingenuity to draw on Spokeo’s powerful search capabilities in other ways) can provide a fresh crop of potential sellers as often as you need. For those wishing to sell a house, the steps are similar but with a slightly different focus: Searching the addresses of properties that have recently sold in your own area can tell you a great deal about who the buyers are and where they’ve moved from, and this enables you to search those areas for potential future buyers with similar profiles.

Methodology and sources

Spokeo worked alongside Leadpipes AI to conduct the ranking, using its Propensity to Sell score to collate the findings. This approach uses machine learning and artificial intelligence to assign every property in the country a number, which correlates with its propensity to sell in the next 90 days. The likelihood to sell mean average has been calculated using all the properties in each area within the Spokeo database – the closer the score to the top rating of 1,000, the higher the likelihood the property will sell within the next 90 days.

The research analyzed 12,132,366 properties, taking into consideration house prices and average loan-to-value for properties in each area, along with employment rates, school and healthcare ratings, crime rates, and the likelihood-to-sell ratio, which considers population density and neighborhood safety.

For the consumer opinion section, Spokeo commissioned a survey of 1,093 adults. They answered a series of questions about off-market sales, including the projected outcome of trying to sell their own homes off-market and their opinion of real estate agents. The survey was conducted between January 22nd and 29th, 2024.

Sources

• https://www.spokeo.com/
• https://www.zillow.com/research/graphics/
• https://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/https://data.census.gov/table?q=employment&g=010XX00US$1600000&tid=ACSDP1Y2021.DP03